Market Cycle Analysis

Bitcoin below the Previous ATH

In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin broke below its 2017 peak of ~$20k. We analyzed daily OHLC data to measure exactly how long it stayed in this historic zone.

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Prior ATH Level

2017 intraday high (Dec 18, 2017)

Total Days Below

Accumulated across 8 separate streaks

Longest Streak

Uninterrupted daily closes

Bear Market Cycle Comparison

How the three major Bitcoin bear markets stack up against each other.

2014 Cycle

Peak Price$1,150
Bottom Price$170
Max Drawdown-85%
Days Below ATH~630
Recovery Time~770 days

2018 Cycle

Peak Price$19,783
Bottom Price$3,200
Max Drawdown-84%
Days Below ATH~780
Recovery Time~1,060 days

2022 Cycle

Peak Price$69,000
Bottom Price$15,500
Max Drawdown-77%
Days Below ATH~530
Recovery Time~730 days

Key Takeaway

Each cycle saw ~75-85% drawdowns but ultimately recovered to new all-time highs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Daily close vs the previous ATH level

Green is BTCUSD daily close. Red shading marks periods below the 2017 ATH threshold.

Range: Jan 4, 2021Dec 29, 2023 (UTC)
Bear Market Timeline

Key Events During the Bear Market

Major events that shaped the 2022-2023 crypto bear market and recovery.

May 2022~$29,000

Luna / Terra Collapse

The algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its peg, wiping out ~$40B in value and triggering a broader market selloff.

Jun 2022~$20,000

Celsius & Three Arrows Capital

Celsius froze withdrawals citing extreme market conditions. Shortly after, 3AC was ordered to liquidate after defaulting on loans.

Jul 2022~$19,300

Voyager Digital Bankruptcy

Crypto lender Voyager Digital filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy following 3AC's default on a $650M loan.

Nov 2022~$16,500

FTX Collapse

FTX, the third-largest exchange, filed for bankruptcy amid revelations of misused customer funds, sending BTC to cycle lows.

Jan 2023~$23,000

Genesis Bankruptcy

Crypto lender Genesis Global Capital filed for Chapter 11, listing over $3.4B in liabilities to creditors.

Mar 2023~$28,000

Banking Crisis (SVB, Signature)

Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed. USDC briefly de-pegged before BTC rallied on safe-haven demand.

Oct 2023~$34,500

BTC Recovery Above Prior ATH

Bitcoin climbed back above the previous cycle's ATH, marking the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run.

The Quick Answer

Using BTCUSD daily closes versus the prior cycle’s ATH, Bitcoin’s longest stretch spent below water was 47 days.This streak ran from Nov 8, 2022 to Jan 12, 2023.

Top 5 Streaks

#1
Nov 8, 2022Jan 12, 2023
47 days
#2
Sep 20, 2022Sep 27, 2022
6 days
#3
Oct 10, 2022Oct 14, 2022
5 days
#4
Oct 18, 2022Oct 24, 2022
5 days
#5
Sep 6, 2022Sep 8, 2022
3 days

Daily Breakdown

Each square represents one day. Green = closed above the prior ATH; red = closed below.

2021
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2022
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2023
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Above ATH
Below ATH

What If You Bought The Dip?

See how different strategies would have played out

Bought at 2021 ATH

Nov 2021 peak ($69k)

$1,377
+37.7% ROI
Invested: $1,0000.0145 BTC
Bought at 2022 Bottom

Nov 2022 low ($15.5k)

$6,129
+512.9% ROI
Invested: $1,0000.0645 BTC
DCA'd Weekly (2022-2023)

Avg cost ~$25k

$3,800
+280.0% ROI
Invested: $1,0000.0400 BTC

Simplified illustration. Not financial advice. Based on approximate historical prices with BTC at ~$95,000.

Drawdown & Recovery

How deep did Bitcoin fall from its Nov 2021 ATH, and how long did the climb back take?

Max Drawdown Depth

-77.5%
ATH (Nov 2021)
$69,000
Bottom (Nov 2022)
$15,500
Recovery Time
~16 months
Bottom to new ATH

Recovery Milestones

0%
Cycle Bottom
Nov 2022
$15,500
25%
25% Recovery
Jan 2023
$28,875
50%
50% Recovery
Feb 2024
$42,250
75%
75% Recovery
Feb 2024
$55,625
100%
Full Recovery
Mar 2024
$69,000
Bottom ($15.5k)ATH ($69k)
Full recovery achieved in ~16 months (Nov 2022 to Mar 2024)

Methodology

Defining the Level

We use the 2017 peak intraday high of $19,455.

The Rule

A 'day below' is counted when the daily close is strictly lower than the ATH level.

Data Source

Stooq Daily OHLC for BTCUSD. Analysis counts calendar days.

Common Questions

What’s the “previous all‑time high” in this analysis?

The previous cycle’s ATH is taken as the 2017 peak intraday high (BTCUSD daily “High”) from Stooq (BTCUSD daily OHLC).

So how many days did Bitcoin stay below that level in the last cycle?

Using daily closes vs that prior ATH level, the longest uninterrupted streak below it lasted 47 days (Nov 8, 2022 → Jan 12, 2023).

Why might other websites show a slightly different number?

ATH values and daily closes differ by exchange/index, time zone cutoffs, and whether you measure intraday highs/lows vs closing prices.

Is this financial advice?

No. This page is informational only and doesn’t predict future prices or cycles.

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